March 2013 – AF Bitcoins

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202

Our little systems have their day;
They have their day and cease to be
- Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H.
This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March.
The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year.
[Chart]
This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings.
These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015.
For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger.
The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic.
This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions
Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits.
Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return.
In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns.
This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting.
This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution.
Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits
To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates.
The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years.
[Chart]
From this chart some observations can be made.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded.
The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period.
[Chart]
As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger.
The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth.
Close to cross-over: the credit card records
One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income.
One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed.
Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month.
[Chart]
The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received.
An updated version of this is seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume.
One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000.
The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels.
In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0%
Summary
One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close.
There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water.
Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose.
Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions.
This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true.
Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

One Year Update: 38M FIREd

Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right?
Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page.
Expenses Overview
Auto Expenses
Food Expenses
Home Expenses
Utility Expenses
Tax Expenses
Healthcare Expenses
Entertainment Expenses
Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700.
With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement.
Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses.
Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense.
Investments:
Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin)
HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA.
$9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account.
Finances Going Forward
I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age.
I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings.
My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000.
The Living Part:
There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!"
Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep.
I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice.
I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours.
I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page.
I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows.
And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast.
Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park.
I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.)
I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me.
Personal History
Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
submitted by Oracle_of_FIRE to financialindependence [link] [comments]

For Trading April 3rd

For Trading April 3rd
Oil Recovery
Trading the Range
Jobless Claims Double
Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%).
And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%).
OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

Dude describes how bitcoin helped him to financial independence and retiring early

Found on /financialindependence:
"I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine."
Source: https://old.reddit.com/financialindependence/comments/f7q7lo/one_year_update_38m_fired/
submitted by Rattlesnake_Mullet to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Ouch!

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

For Trading April 3rd

For Trading April 3rd
Oil Recovery
Trading the Range
Jobless Claims Double
Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%).
And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%).
OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

For Trading April 3rd

For Trading April 3rd
Oil Recovery
Trading the Range
Jobless Claims Double
Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%).
And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%).
OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Historic!

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

HUOBI – THE EXCHANGE BUILT FOR THE FUTURE - A HONEST REVIEW BY AN USER

HUOBI – THE EXCHANGE BUILT FOR THE FUTURE - A HONEST REVIEW BY AN USER
HUOBI – THE EXCHANGE BUILT FOR THE FUTURE
A HONEST REVIEW BY AN USER
https://preview.redd.it/3il28cidztt41.png?width=313&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7c7ccafde202532977305d9be044ba9c7f88e42
Leon Li founded Huobi in 2013, a former computer engineer at Oracle. Huobi Global is a digital asset and crypto currency exchange headquartered in Singapore. Huobi also has local exchanges in South Korea, Japan, and through its strategic partner, the United States.
The Huobi Group, the parent company of Huobi Global, has received venture capital finance from prominent Beijing based ZhenFund and American VC firm Sequoia Capital.
The Huobi Global exchange serves traders in 130 countries. Through Huobi Global, traders can access almost 200 crypto and stable coin assets. Huobi users can download trading clients on both mobile and desktop devices.
Huobi has traded over US$1.2 trillion in digital assets, and at one time it was the world’s leading exchange by volume, capturing 50% of all global trading volume.
In terms of security, Huobi has adopted a decentralized exchange structure, which helps to resist DDOS attacks. However, Huobi has implemented the ‘Huobi Security Reserve, in which Huobi has set aside 20,000 BTC reserved for users who have lost funds either due to hacks, or exchange failures.
Ease of use
The UI is clean, user-friendly and perfectly designed with all the basic requirements for a crypto-trader. The charting software is provided by Tradingview, which is exactly what you want.
https://preview.redd.it/nm2fr51mztt41.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=16c406a4eec33a1c28d2bcb5330bee6b043fc359
Huobi OTC
Huobi’s OTC exchange is a good initiative. The Huobi OTC exchange allows users to trade funds peer-to-peer which doesn’t affect the market price of the underlying asset. The OTC trading-desk, with transfer options like bank-transfers, PayPal, WU, Paytm, UPI, IMPS, Alipay & many others, is an easy to use payment gateway. With a secure exchange to diversify your investment, right next door, too with effective list of Buy and Sell options for BTC, ETH, USDT and EOS coins.
https://preview.redd.it/66c2zr2oztt41.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=41899be5c02791f9f5323b957ad13d092b5275f7
Huobi Lite
Huobi Lite App provides a convenient channel for everyone to buy cryptocurrencies at the best prices. Tailor-made for beginners, traders, and users.
We can download the App directly from the respective iOS Store or Google Play Store. Alternatively, we may access via the link: https://lite.huobi.com/download
https://preview.redd.it/tw8p8cmpztt41.png?width=260&format=png&auto=webp&s=88f4d4d45b8b287d452f02547adfd187f2b09977
On Huobi Lite, you can buy Bitcoin with your local currencies, credit card, or exchange cryptocurrencies tokens, with zero fees at competitive prices. Huobi Lite currently supports MYR / HKD / VND / USD (Credit Card deposit only), with more to come in the future.
Huobi Derivative Market (Huobi DM)
Margin Trading
Huobi Global launched Huobi Derivative Market (Huobi DM) exchange to selected countries. It provides margin trading, with very low daily loan interest rates of 0.1%. Margin Trading allows users to increase their investment exposure given a limited base principal to enjoy multiple returns.
3-Steps taken in Margin Trading:
  1. Request for Loan
  2. Trade on Margin (Long/Short)
  3. Repay Margin Loan and Interest
With the introduction of Cross Margin on Huobi, users will have to explicitly input the respective margin type before executing the above 3 steps. Balances on the Cross Margin balance does not show on the Isolated Margin balance.
Huobi Futures
Huobi Futures is a kind of digital currency derivatives. Users can make a profit from the rising/falling of digital currencies prices by going long or selling short based on their own judgment.
The Huobi Futures Contract adopts spread delivery. When the contract expires, all open positions will be closed at the index-based last-hour arithmetic average price, instead of physical delivery.
BTC/ETH/EOS/LTC/XRP/BCH/TRX/BSV/ETC Contracts are available on Huobi DM. Contracts are priced in USD, with corresponding digital currency (BTC/ETH/EOS/LTC/XRP/BCH/TRX respectively) as margin to open positions, and PnL is also settled in corresponding digital currency.
Weekly, bi-weekly and quarterly contracts are available in Huobi DM. Weekly contracts will be settled on imminent Friday; Bi-weekly contracts will be settled on next Friday; Quarterly contracts will be settled on the last Friday of March, June, September and December.
Choices of leverage: 1x, 5x, 10x, 20x
Huobi Perpetual Swap
Huobi introduced Perpetual Swaps on March 27, 2020 (GMT+8). Huobi Perpetual swap is a kind of digital currency derivatives. Users can make a profit from the rising/falling of digital currencies prices by going long or selling short based on their own judgment. Similar to a margin spot market, its price is close to the price of the underlying reference index. The main mechanism for anchoring spot prices is the cost of funds. Perpetual swap have no delivery date. Users can always hold it. Perpetual swap are settled every 8 hours. After each settlement, the realized profit/loss and unrealized profits/losses are transferred to the user account balance.
Partial Liquidation
Huobi Futures adopted partial liquidation to help position holders reduce liquidation risk. Users with large positions and high leverage bear high risk. Huobi Futures releases partial liquidation with the aim to lower possible losses due to high price volatility thus giving users better trading experience.
Under partial liquidation mechanism, when liquidation is triggered, instead of liquidating all positions at once, the system reduces positions gradually till a grade whose margin ratio is great than 0. Full liquidation will only occur when the margin ratio of tier 1 upper limit net position still fails to be great than 0.
Trading Fees
The Huobi exchange has a fair trading fee structure. Every asset traded via Huobi Global is subject to a 0.2% trade fee, for both market makers and takers. Further, Huobi Global has introduced a tiered fee system which offers competitively lower fees for high volume traders. VIP membership gives access to various fee reductions and other benefits.
Huobi Prime
Huobi Prime, the Launchpad platform which we can call Direct Premium Offering (DPO), does share some similarities with initial exchange offerings (IEO) like Binance Launchpad, but it is unique as it is not a fundraising platform, and any coins purchased on the platform are immediately deposited into the users’ wallets and tradable on Huobi Global. Huobi Prime offers its users early access to the coins of premium projects, which can be bought using its native crypto currency, the Huobi Token. To avoid dumping, Huobi has implemented an innovative idea of a period of tiered price limits.
Huobi FastTrack
Huobit FastTrack, rebranded from Huobi Prime Lite, is a new listing model. Wherein, all participants will have a direct say in what projects are listed on Huobi Global and when. In addition, winning voters will get access to quality tokens at below market rates. The program also provides much needed exposure and a straightforward listing process.
Huobi Wallet
https://preview.redd.it/6iux5zotztt41.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=fef6f6d6813ec82a70df28b160fe18ba2237daba
Huobi Wallet is the official mobile wallet of Huobi Group, a leading global digital asset financial service provider. It is a multi-chain asset management tool that provides native support for various types of blockchains and all of the ERC20 tokens. So far Huobi Wallet supports BTC, BCH, LTC, ETH, ETC, USDT and all ERC20 tokens.
Huobi wallet is the first wallet to expand support to cover seven stablecoins including, Paxos Standard Token (PAX), TrueUSD (TUSD), USD Coin (USDC), Gemini Dollar (GUSD), Dai (DAI), Stasis EURS (EURS), and Tether (USDT).
Huobi Wallet is built based on the core principle of security-first. The wallet gives back its users, complete control of their private keys. In simple terms, You own your assets. The wallet is backed up with mnemonics, so in future when you want to import your wallet, it’s just simple few clicks.
Currently, the wallet is compatible with both iOS and Android devices and you can download both from here (www.huobiwallet.com/en)
Huobi Chain
Huobi launched Huobi Chain’s Testnet (“the Testnet”) on February 29th 2020 (GMT+8). Huobi Chain is China’s autonomous cum compliant-ready blockchain platform, and is committed to providing a global, blockchain-based, digital asset infrastructure. Huobi Chain is committed to providing a high-performance, blockchain-based, global digital asset infrastructure. Once the Mainnet goes live, Huobi Chain will announce HT- related events: e.g. pledge HT to be a Super Node, etc.
HT Lock & Mine (Huobi Pool)
Huobi launched HT Lock and Mine operations on 25th July 2019 (GMT+8). Users who lock HT tokens receive daily HPT rewards. Specific reward quantity will depend on lock option period selected, quantity locked and Huobi Pool’ s mining hash power and daily float.
DPOS Rewards: All Huobi Global users with more than 1,000HPT holdings in their HBG account will receive DPOS mining rewards. Currently, token reward received under DPOS mining include EOS, TRX, CMT, ONG, IOST, ATOM, IRIS, LAMB。
Huobi Support
Users of the Huobi exchange can access 24/7 live chat and Huobi help center. Those facing issues can also open a support ticket to have their issue resolved by an expert representative immediately.
The Huobi Group has a very active YouTube channel, featuring Huobi Talk, where it posts user tutorials, detailed guides, and crypto currency information for traders.
What I like the most about Huobi
  1. An established platform that’s been operating since 2013, which is a long time in the crypto world.
  2. Highly secured with decentralized exchange structure, which helps to resist DDOS attacks. Huobi has never suffered a large hack.
  3. Huobi Security Reserve of 20000 BTC to compensate users’ loss of funds.
  4. Dedicated, fast and 24/7 customer support.
  5. Regulated in major jurisdictions.
  6. User interface is very smooth and clean.
  7. Over 230 crypto assets are available.
  8. User education program is good initiative.
  9. Separate trading desk for institution and firm size users.
  10. Very transparent about its operations, listings and projects.
  11. Huobi Wallet is secured and very easy to operate.
  12. Huobi mobile app is smooth and very easy to use.
  13. Competitive fees.
  14. Has taken serious steps towards avoiding wash trading.
  15. Impressive array of trading pairs.
  16. Has given more important on community participation, like voting for listing, mining pool, Huobi Knights program etc.
  17. I like Huobi Prime because of following reasons: -
(a) Purchased tokens are immediately deposited into user’s accounts,
(b) As projects launch exclusively through Huobi Prime from day one, all users get assets at the best price.
(c) Tiered price limits on the platform protect both investors and projects from immediate dump.
  1. Huobi screen projects and launches which are only the best. I don’t have to worry about poor or scammy projects.
  2. Burning of HT is a great move and it would benefit long term holders.
Join Huobi by click here: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=7zkb4
Visit
Huobi Global: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/
Join Indian Group: https://t.me/huobiglobalindia
Global telegram Channel: https://t.me/huobiglobalofficial
Join Huobi by click here: https://www.huobi.com/en-us/topic/invited/?invite_code=7zkb4
submitted by VinayTM to HuobiGlobal [link] [comments]

For Trading March 10th

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading March 10th

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to optionstrading [link] [comments]

World Carnivore Month is January 2019! Info dump inside!

Hey all!
Our subreddit has grown CONSIDERABLY in the last year - 2018 was a huge year for the zerocarb carnivore movement, and it started through the success of World Carnivore Month at the beginning of 2018! Tens of thousands of people joined Facebook groups, and 50,000 people subscribed to this subreddit! Hundreds are talking about the carnivore diet on Twitter - you can see if someone is a carnivore by checking if they have ©️ in their name, like mine! hyper©️arnivore
Surprisingly, this is a very old diet that has centuries of history.
http://highsteaks.com/carnivores-creed/owsley-the-bear-stanley/
We have multiple doctors not only suggesting that people try a carnivorous zerocarb diet, but are even doing it themselves and realizing they too have been conned by the health and nutrition establishment.

Doctors such as:

Supporting evidence that the following doctors recommend Carnivore Diet or close to it. https://www.reddit.com/usedem0n0cracy/comments/addz0l/doctors_discuss_the_carnivore_diet/
https://www.reddit.com/usedem0n0cracy/comments/ade16i/more_doctors_pharmacists_researchers_phds/
Dr. Shawn Baker - u/shawnbaker1967 https://twitter.com/SBakerMD
Dr. Ken D Berry https://twitter.com/KenDBerryMD
Dr. Jay Wrigley https://twitter.com/KetoDocCLT
Dr. Anthony Jay https://twitter.com/anthonygjay
Dr. Kevin Stock https://twitter.com/kevinstock12
Dr. Christian Assad https://twitter.com/ChristianAssad
Dr. Paul Saladino https://twitter.com/MDSaladino
Dr. Robert Pastore https://twitter.com/RP5hydroxy
Dr. David Unwin https://twitter.com/lowcarbGP
Dr. Michael Eades M.D. https://twitter.com/DrEades
Dr. Tro Kalayjian - u/DoctorTro https://twitter.com/DoctorTro
Dr. Paul Mason https://twitter.com/DrPaulMason
Dr. Csaba Toth https://twitter.com/paleoketogenic
Dr. Anthony Chaffee https://twitter.com/anthony_chaffee
Dr. Georgia Ede diagnosisdiet.com https://twitter.com/GeorgiaEdeMD
Dr. Ted Naiman https://twitter.com/tednaiman
Dr. Gary Fettke https://twitter.com/FructoseNo
Dr. Ben Bikman https://twitter.com/BenBikmanPhD
Dr. Peter Ballerstedt https://twitter.com/GrassBased
Dr. Nevada Gray https://twitter.com/GrayNevada
Dr. Gabrielle Lyon https://twitter.com/drgabriellelyon
Dr. Bret Scher https://twitter.com/bschermd
Dr. Paul Mabry
Dr. Darren Schmidt - D.C. https://twitter.com/realfoodcures
Dr. Steven Horwitz - D.C. https://twitter.com/DrHorwitz
Dr. Cameron Sepah https://Twitter.com/DrSepah
Dr. David Baldes M.D. https://twitter.com/ketoshrink/status/1081763193536634881?s=21
Nutritionist Amy Berger https://twitter.com/TuitNutrition
Professor Timothy Noakes https://twitter.com/ProfTimNoakes
Professor Stuart Phillips https://twitter.com/mackinprof
Journalist Nina Teicholz https://twitter.com/bigfatsurprise
Ph.D candidate Miki Ben-Dor https://twitter.com/bendormiki

Facebook Groups have grown substantially!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/worldcarnivoretribe/ - World Carnivore Tribe started by Dr. Shawn Baker
https://www.facebook.com/groups/zioh2/ - Zeroing In On Health started by Charles Washington 8 years ago
https://www.facebook.com/groups/PrincipiaCarnivora/ - Principia Carnivora started by Michael Frieze 3 years ago
https://www.facebook.com/groups/160488851347176/ - 100% Carnivore...and Beyond! started by Phil Escott this year
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1685052231589351/ - Carnivore Paleolithic Ketogenic Diet Support Group
https://www.facebook.com/groups/482045862179951/ - Carnivore/Keto Diet
https://www.facebook.com/groups/509414366151670/?ref=group_header - Autistic Carnivores
https://www.facebook.com/groups/animalfatrx/ - Animal Fat RX
https://www.facebook.com/groups/191667651770756/ - RAW-some Zero Carb Carnivore Sanctuary
https://www.facebook.com/groups/womencarnivoretribe/ - Women Carnivore Tribe
https://www.facebook.com/groups/meathealth/ - Carnivore Corner
https://www.facebook.com/groups/KetoCarnivoreIF/ - Keto Carnivore IF
https://www.facebook.com/groups/zerocarbdoc/ - Zero Carb Doc started by Dr. Paul Mabry
https://www.facebook.com/groups/661617567520427/ - Zero Carb: Living the Good Life

Images

The Carnivore Diet for Mankind - HD - Star - Emoji Advice of what to eat / drink, Polls, Podcasts, Books - Zoom in to see the small text in this HD photo https://i.redd.it/qftzcf3if4k11.png
Homo Carnivorus - Part 1 : https://i.redd.it/xnmqrewisd221.png
Homo Carnivorus - Part 2 : https://i.redd.it/z7vjpfcksd221.png
StarChart - https://i.redd.it/789n61b45e221.png
CarnivoreDietAdvice - https://i.redd.it/31ud3dj65e221.png
Podcasts - https://i.redd.it/0rw60z785e221.png
Books - https://i.redd.it/k0074of95e221.png
Polls - https://i.redd.it/yqeribea5e221.png

Websites

http://highsteaks.com/carnivores-creed/owsley-the-bear-stanley/ - Read about The Bear - who coined the 'zerocarb' nomenclature and did the diet for 53 years until his untimely death in a car accident.
https://justmeat.co - Michael Goldstein @bitstein
https://meat.health/ - Dr. Kevin Stock
https:///meatheals.com - N=1 Anecdotes (@bitstein and @sbakermd run it)
https://zerocarbzen.com/testimonials/
https://ketogenicendurance.com/category/carnivore-diet-success-stories/
http://www.empiri.ca/p/eat-meat-not-too-little-mostly-fat.html - L Amber O'Hearn
http://www.diagnosisdiet.com/ - Dr Georgia Ede
http://highsteaks.com/f/index.php/board,5.0/sort,views/desc.html - Tons of old forum posts about various topics!
http://mikhailapeterson.com/ - Don't Eat That! Blog
A history of Nutrition Science
Part 1 (1785-1885): http://jn.nutrition.org/content/133/3/638.abstractPart 2 (1885-1912): http://jn.nutrition.org/content/133/4/975.fullPart 3 (1912-1944): http://jn.nutrition.org/content/133/10/3023.fullPart 4 (1945-1985): http://jn.nutrition.org/content/133/11/3331.full" I like to go back and re-read these articles on occasion to refresh my understanding of the Keto lifestyle. Many people aren't aware there there is a long unbroken string of professionals that have been using low carbohydrate interventions to combat obesity dating all the way back to the 1860s. This is by no means an exhaustive list, but rather shows a "lineage of thinking" that got us to where we are today. Some of these publications are hard to find now, so I leave them here for you to enjoy:

Books

Giant Booklist! https://www.reddit.com/ketoscience/wiki/index
New Books!

YouTube Channels

Frank Tufano https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIEiE-hnAUXUZNNeMJsZBYA/videos
Shawn Baker https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5apkKkeZQXRSDbqSalG8CQ/videos
HVMN https://hvmn.com/podcast/
Low Carb Down Under https://www.youtube.com/uselowcarbdownundevideos
Primal Edge Health https://www.youtube.com/usePrimalEdgeHealth/videos
Dr. Eric Berg DC https://www.youtube.com/usedrericberg123/videos
Ancestry Foundation https://www.youtube.com/useAncestryFoundation/videos
The Raw Primal Family https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZx7e6GWv49UiSBkpzpqoUA/videos
Daphne Reloaded https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOkEtmLmlugiPN9hH8u9Zyg/videos
Thomas DeLauer https://www.youtube.com/useTheTdelauevideos
The Weston A Price Foundation https://www.youtube.com/useTheWestonAPrice/videos
Dr. Darren Schmidt https://www.youtube.com/useNutritionalHealingA2/videos
PrimalBro https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2e2i4dJgsl0cB5PFjTDBZw/videos
Phil Escott https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcHEYrfmQH-5RxiFL5RD08g/videos
Ketogeek https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClBAXCB3f0vUzj9wwKJeoOQ/videos
Ken D Berry MD https://www.youtube.com/useKenDBerry/videos
Physicians for Ancestral Health https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCijY61FN3AtDWSbrRj9nYqA/videos
Public Health Collaboration https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZO0WD6hn02_6b0_MNTKPgQ
Fat Fueled Family - Danny Vega https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBWrXQozj8I
Crohn's Colitis Vitality https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfnYhj9llnBS78vM8jwtNCA
Vegetable Police https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFuLNktnqqBEF_9ZcmjC_bw
What I've Learned https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqYPhGiB9tkShZorfgcL2lA
sv3rige https://www.youtube.com/usesv3rige
KasumiKriss https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp4_eaWIdkiW37Fg4Moi9Ag
SHREDucated https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTQ5VXO6E9iVdMT5WJwuqHA
Tuit Nutrition - Amy Berger https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmDz-SYYhoerycynsCm7L8g
Keto Connect https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzRYivTpUQ0r2qPPjfLoQiA
Carneval https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCngtlLz7xTfiEAsDU-HrnBg
Full Range Strength - Don Matesz https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZHoeDSpHN1bBWXsqSgaeuw
Dr. Nick Zyrowski https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3o_WpYz0gso
Dr. Paul Saladino https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg1P0buUrv4
Autism and the Carnivore Diet https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5ME6nGWxcQ&t=1s
Rob Stuart https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk5R_invOWQ

Podcasts

CarnivoreCast http://www.carnivorecast.com/Human Performance Outliers (Dr. Shawn Baker and Zach Bitter) http://humanperformanceoutliers.libsyn.com/Peak Human https://www.peak-human.com/BioHackers Lab https://www.biohackerslab.com/
Fitness Confidential https://vinnietortorich.com/tag/fitness-confidential/
Low Carb Cardiologist with Dr. Bret Scher https://lowcarbcardiologist.com/
Diet Doctor Podcast (has video) https://www.dietdoctor.com/the-diet-doctor-podcast-is-now-on-itunes-apple-podcasts
Dr. Peter Attia - The Drive https://peterattiamd.com/podcast/
2 Keto Dudes http://2ketodudes.com/
The Keto Savage http://ketosavage.com/podcasts/
Low Carb MD http://www.lowcarbmd.com/
Zero Carb Journal https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/zero-carb-journal/id1328453741
InnerFirePodcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/innerfirepodcast/id1249685753
STEM-Talk https://www.ihmc.us/stemtalks/

Crowd Funded Science

Get a $169 TeloMere kit and do the Carnivore Diet strictly for 3 months and then send in results(or don't)! https://www.ajconsultingcompany.com/carnivoredietstudy.html
nequalsmany.com Free tracking app designed for Carnivore Diet

In the News!

ABC News Good Morning America : What to know about the trendy, meat-only 'carnivory' diet By ABC NEWS Jul 27, 2018, 8:51 AM ETSFChronicle - Tech workers seeking an edge on peers turn to all-meat ‘carnivore diet’
INC: Steak Is the New Salad: Why These Techies Are Embracing an All-Meat Diet Your Coinbase account should be accompanied by steak and bacon, according to these cryptocurrency luminaries. Sept 22, 2017
Vice : Inside the World of the 'Bitcoin Carnivores' Why a small community of Bitcoin users is eating meat exclusively. Sept 29th, 2017
Global News Canada : Danielle Smith: If you want to improve your health, eat more meat January 12, 2018
INC: I Ate Nothing but Meat for 2 Weeks. Here's What It Was Like @sonyaellenmann
The Guardian: They mock vegans and eat 4lb of steak a day: meet 'carnivore dieters' An extreme, all animal-based diet is gaining followers in search of heightened productivity, mental clarity, and a boosted libido. But experts express doubts @oliviasolon Fri 11 May 2018 04.00 EDT
National Post: Meat, meat, and more meat: Extreme, animal-only 'carnivore diet' gaining followers Enthusiasts of the all-meat diet include a group of self-proclaimed 'bitcoin carnivores' May 15, 2018
Healthline : This Woman Says Meat-Only Diet Eased Her Autoimmune Disease Symptoms Mikhaila Peterson took the keto diet one extra step by eliminating veggies and eating only meat. She says it cured several illnesses. Experts aren’t convinced. Written by Gigen Mammoser on June 3, 2018
PureWow : What Is the Carnivore Diet (and Should You Try It)? By ALEXIA DELLNER | JUN. 27, 2018
'Vegans Are Sacks Of Sh*t But They Are Winning' Carnivore Ex-Doc Blasts Jul 18, 2018
NYPost : New diet claims you can lose weight eating only steak and burgers July 24, 2018
Eggs and bacon for breakfast, burgers for lunch, steak for dinner: Man says ‘carnivore diet’ has helped him lose weightPOSTED 8:50 PM, JULY 29, 2018, BY FOX NEWS WIRE SERVICE,
BuzzFeed News : Jordan Peterson Says Meat Cured His Depression. Now His Daughter Will Tell You How It Healed Her Too — For A Fee. Posted on July 31, 2018
PopSci : Please do not try to survive on an all-meat diet By Sara Chodosh August 2, 2018
The Daily Meal: The Carnivore Diet Is the Wildest Weight Loss Craze of All Time August 3, 2018 By Holly Van Hare
Repost to News.Com.Au : New diet claims you can lose weight eating only steaks and burgers AUGUST 5, 2018
PETA Takes Life Insurance Policy Out On A Carnivore Dieter, Hopes To Turn Him Vegan
I'm a Registered Dietitian and I Really Don't Want You to Eat a Carnivore Diet August 7th, 2018
TRENDS TO TOSS (OR MODERATE) IN 2019 CARNIVORE DIET

Related Subreddits

ketoscience
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ZeroCarbMeals
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StopEatingSugar
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PaleolithicKetogenic
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Upcoming Conferences on Low Carb, Keto, Carnivore

submitted by dem0n0cracy to zerocarb [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Growth of CryptoCurrency in 2017

http://i.imgur.com/W8gr4fF.png - 2017 growth of 18 coins from over 2x to over 310x returns
The crypto market is currently $156 Billion dollars and growing with $4.9 Billion dollars of trade in the last 24 hours. BTC makes up less than %50 of that volume. This time last year the total crypto market was only $11.5 Billion.
Seeing these types of charts or the "What if you invested $100 in Bitcoin in 2010" type articles sometimes gives the impression that these outcomes were one time flukes that won't happen again but even now similar growth in new & old coins is still happening.
OmiseGo OMG - 1424.53% since it started trading last month July 14 Binance BNB - 2156.89% since trading on July 25 Neo - older coin 3668.22% since June 1
The chart & above are non ICO prices from coinmarketcap.com If going by ICO prices from https://icostats.com/roi-since-ico the highest all time return has been NXT at 718,805% in 2013. Stratis from June last year has had 83,304% QTUM from March this year has had 3940% OMG's return on the ICO price is 3163%
$100 in Pivx at the beginning of the year would now be worth over $26,000 - even more if they were staked or put in a masternode. $100 in Binance a month ago would now be over $2,100
Not interested in what some random redditor says? Here's some links to recent articles from mainstream business sites regarding financial professionals movement into crypto:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/07/12/crypto-boom-15-new-hedge-funds-want-in-on-84000-returns/#65c89b23416a
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-17/ex-harvard-money-manager-is-said-to-launch-digital-currency-fund
http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-backs-new-cryptocurrency-fund-2017-8
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fidelity-investments-bitcoin-idUSKBN1AP0AO
submitted by KalpaX to investing [link] [comments]

What can the earlier days of Bitcoin teach us about holding Ethereum?

Recently, I was thinking back to my first exposure to crypto, after talking with a couple of my coworkers who shared their own, more recent experience with me. It was late 2013 when I first bought BTC, but I had heard about Bitcoin a couple of years earlier. I thought the idea of internet money that nobody controlled sounded like a scam, so I stayed clear. I couldn't really understand the value proposition and didn't take the time to understand how it works (hindsight is 20/20).
That started to change in early 2013. I learned much more about Bitcoin, which at the time was the only blockchain of any consequence, and began to understand the trustless nature of this revolutionary technology and how it would change the world. But what drew me in was the price. For those of you who weren't around then, it's worth taking a minute to open up that chart on Coinbase and see what that bump was in the grand scheme of things.
See what now looks like a relatively little blip there in late 2013? That was when Bitcoin went roughly 10x in a month- from a $100 valuation to a $1000 valuation. I signed up for a Coinbase account shortly before Thanksgiving. Over that Thanksgiving, I spent the whole holiday / weekend talking to my family about how revolutionary this technology was- and wow, were they confused and unable to fathom it. To me, it seemed so obvious. Price increases have a way of "revealing" unassailable logic in situations like these.
It took a while for Coinbase to approve my account, but I could hardly wait for that. I was on eBay, seeing if I could buy Casascius Coins. They were appealing to me at the time, because they merged an asset that was completely virtual with something that was tangible. My brain had still not fully accepted paying so much money for something that "didnt' exist" in real life. But the speculation was soaring so high on those coins (double the BTC value or more) that I decided to pass.
Soon thereafter, I finally got access to Coinbase and bought my first Bitcoin for around $900. And then the price dropped, and it kept dropping. But I kept on buying, knowing that this is how asset markets worked. The price was going down, but for something this revolutionary, it would have to eventually go back up...at least that's what I was hoping. I bought all the way down to prices in the low $400s.
And then in June 2014, I abruptly sold them all, at a sizable net loss. Why did I do that? What was going through my mind to make such a rash decision? Well, open that chart back up. The price had cratered down into the $230s and seemed to be stuck at these new lows- it was a winter that started earlier in that year and never ended. And the Mt Gox debacle was completely soul crushing and I really felt that my hopes for the success of a decentralized currency were completely dashed. And back then, there were no other alt coins to FOMO into. It was Bitcoin or (mostly) nothing.
Besides, I had a major home purchase underway and decided that my money was better going into that rather than holding Bitcoin. In hindsight, I sold at what turned out to be the close to the bottom of Bitcoin. And then just look at that chart. A slow and steady increase over years, with $1000 only being reached again in March of this year.
And as we enter Thanksgiving 4 years later, some of you are going to have these same conversations with your own families about Ethereum. I can tell you what some of them are going to say:
"Internet money? I wouldn't invest in something like that. Who controls it? Isn't this just for criminals?"
"Smart contracts? Even if they do work, what's the point of having them when you have regular contracts? And why does XYZ service even need to be decentralized?"
"This whole thing sounds like a bubble. I hope you don't have much money in this..."
So what does all of this teach us about holding Ethereum?
  1. For many of your friends and family next week, it will be the first time they've heard of concepts like smart contracts or even cryptocurrency in any depth, but if Bitcoin is our teacher, it won't be the last. Take the time to explain it, but don't be pushy about it. Plant the seed, walk away, and send articles to them over the course of the next year.
  2. Bitcoin's $1000 moment reminds me of ETH's $420 moment. Many new buyers FOMO'ed in and are still waiting for their returns, with many likely abandoning the path along the way. Most of the actual buyers of Bitcoin in 2013 then were "nerds" who were fascinated by the technology because they were among the few who took the time to understand it and felt comfortable putting large amounts of money into something on the internet. I would suggest that most recent ETH buyers are still in this "nerd" territory, without real mainstream understanding of what it is.
  3. We are in what seems like a "long winter," with ETH stagnant at around $300. But it is unlikely our next big run will take 4 years to develop. I'm thinking a period of 3 to 12 months. The space isn't what it used to be, with massive institutional money coming and a very vibrant and mainstream-accepted development community. Those among you who were smart bought every token they could during the July depression. If that happens again, you know what to do.
  4. Even if we had another Mt Gox style event (I won't name any exchanges or pegged tokens), it would probably not have the same impact as Mt Gox had. The system is much more diverse and resilient against such events now. There would be a drop, but it would be (hopefully) short lived.
  5. If you just hold long enough, the price is very likely to go up. Possibly substantially up. Maybe even life changing amounts up. You understand the technology and the potential. Don't doubt yourself on your original thesis, like I did with Bitcoin a few years ago. The future picture for ETH has only gotten better in recent months.
So learn from Bitcoin, and don't screw this up for yourselves by taking rash actions- driven by impatience or outsized greed. I am not always one for hyperbole, but I am not exaggerating when I say that you may honestly regret it for the rest of your life.
submitted by DCinvestor to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Technical Analysis Chart 3/25/2017 by ChartGuys.com Bitcoin Price History Chart 2009 - 2018 #BitcoinPriceHistoryChart bitcoin historical price action is pure art 2x speed Bitcoin Trading Charts Bitcoin Ethereum Litecoin Technical Analysis Chart 11/5/2017 by ChartGuys.com

The above chart shows CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index for Dec. 1, 2013 to Dec. 31, 2013. As of Thursday, bitcoin's value was just above $16,500, according to CoinDesk.Based on that value, one ... Editor’s Note: Check out Kitco’s full 2014 coverage. (Kitco News) - It has been a wild year for bitcoin and although the currency has been around for the last five years, 2013 is when most ... In total, the price of bitcoin was above $1,000 for just 10 days in 2013, and only one day in 2014, according to BPI data. In 2013, prices quickly returned to the $600-$700 level, a low that, at ... Bitcoin history for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. Bitcoin price chart since 2009 to 2019. The historical data and rates of BTC ... 7 posts published by afbitcoins during March 2013. Just a short post today, have drawn my channel onto this 2 month log chart.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis Chart 3/25/2017 by ChartGuys.com

#bitcoin #litecoin #krypto #crypto #cryptocurrency #interest #stockmarket #recession #bearmarket #bullmarket #davincij15 #mmcrypto #btc #bitcoinprice #bitcointoday #crash #economy #inflation #ecb ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Bitcoin trading charts come in all shapes and with different momentum indicators. This video just shows you the basis of line charts, http://bitcoinlivedaytrading.com. Bitcoin history – Price 2009 to 2018, Charts, Data – Bitcoin View Bitcoin's price since its inception in 2009 and all the way up to today. Complete with historical events and how they affected ... bitcoin Technical Analysis Chart for 3/25/2017 NEW Course: ... Bitcoin price technical analysis -25th March 2018 - Duration: 10:42. Waves618 2,362 views. 10:42. Stock Market Review! (May 26th ...

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